Guest Speaker:
Stephen Costello
Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Korean Studies at George Washington University in Washington
Event Date: Thursday 15th February 2024
Event Time: 5:30 pm-7:00 pm
Event Location:
Bell Gully
Level 4 Bell Gully Building, 40 Lady Elizabeth Lane, Wellington, 6011.
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Synopsis
Lessons from the APEC conference in San Francisco. Xi Jinping and Joe Biden were able to meet low expectations and lower the temperature of their dangerous and unconstrained bickering over the past two years. Those new cooperative meetings and agreements should lead to modest improvement. In particular, the military-to-military agreements, and President Xi’s clear reported statements that he has no plans to invade Taiwan in coming years, should provide the region with some increased flexibility in mapping a more stable future. But what was not said, and the large and lingering dangers middle powers face, was equally important.
Appreciate the difference between threats and capabilities.This is primarily about reporting and analysis of North Korea, but it could also include China, Japan, and the US. Much official rhetoric has become irresponsible.
Appreciate the difference between leadership and control of resources. In the US the word “leadership” is badly misused by media, scholars, and others. In East Asia, the US and its supporters continue to confuse these two aspects of US power.
Both require a degree of attention to language and a dedication to intellectual honesty.
Today they also require both an awareness of political positions, language and power, AND a rather brave determination to be accurate, analytical, and professional in one’s public output.
A third element is that we need be realistic and accurate about the diplomacy in Northeast Asia during the 1990s. I make this point because almost the entire Washington policy mainstream has either eliminated or whitewashed that decade, and its applicable lessons, from analysis.
I really like the current discussion about middle powers and their roles. It feels both absolutely needed and very timely. And it has been timely for at least two decades.
Together with other regional middle powers, New Zealand’s view of its American partner should be updated. Some Chinese look at current developments and see a major decline in US power. It’s not that simple. During the 1990s the policies in Northeast Asia of the George HW (Papa) Bush and Bill Clinton administrations were often forward-looking and could have supported expanded middle power agency.
However, since 2001 US administrations have often been on the wrong side of development and security issues here. US power is different from US interests. And US interests often change with administrations. This means East Asian middle powers require a more long-term and realistic assessment of when and on what issues the US will be helpful, and when and on what issues it will not. Importantly, in the midst of this unpredictability, it is still not hard to identify realistic US interests which are supported by top scholars, historians and policy specialists.
Your new view of the US should be more honest, less dependent on old or inaccurate myths, more practical and realistic. I cannot stress enough that US governments, and US foreign policy specialists, need your advice and guidance more than ever today, even if they will not say so.
We must address the Elephant in the China Shop. Or, we could point to the Elephant and Panda in the China Shop. In either case, the items on the shelves are delicate and precious, and they include New Zealand’s physical security, its trade and economy, its foreign relations and its democratic structures and identity.
Potential roles for New Zealand and East Asian middle powers. There is a real need for New Zealand to consider the natural coalition of middle powers in East Asia as a potential and consequential group of actors with their own agenda for lowering tension, ending an arms race, and addressing urgent festering problems. Regional and international organizations are logical partners. These problems involve economics and trade, labor rights and inequality, as well as traditional security and development. They do not lend themselves to simplistic black/white framing. They are not intractable, and require mainly political and policy courage, and leadership. Many coalitions are possible, but New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and South Korea is a good start.
About the speaker:
Stephen Costello is Non-resident Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Korean Studies at George Washington University in Washington, DC. He has been working on policy in Korea and the US for 33 years. Mr. Costello is an independent analyst,consultant, and Director of AsiaEast, a policy platform for analysis of Korea, the East Asian region, and US interests there.He was a Non-resident Visiting Researcher at the Gyeonggi Research Institute in Uijeongbu, Korea during 2020 and 2021. He was formerly director of the Korea Program at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington from 1999 to 2004 and director of the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation in Washingtonfrom 1993 to 1997. His column appears at The Korea Times in Seoul. Twitter: @CostelloScost
His Korea Times articles can be found here: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/sublist_637.html
Articles at East Asia Forum can be found here: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/contributors/# (Costello)
